BTC Forecast 1/5/2020 3:00 UTC

Hello friends, first a review of the previous forecasts:

9/29/19 17:20 UTC was my first medium forecast, the following support lines were suggested as potential bear targets, keeping in mind that the initial descending triangle had recently failed:

s 7521 October 23rd
s 7033 November 21st*
f 6710 November 25th
s 6500 December 18th
f 5014 Target Not Achieved

Because of the sudden spike on October 25th to the top of the bear channel, and then subsequently all the way back down to my next targets, I do humbly admit that range play threw me off a bit. Overall, however the forecast was surprisingly accurate.

In my mind the 5014 target was thought of as the end of times target, meaning that if it were to go below that future bull sessions would be far off into the future, perhaps skipping the coming June halving event. (Fortunately it did not happen …)

Since that article I posted a couple more — one on 10/14, which called a bottom at 6900, $500 above the recent lows.

I later had an exchange with some margin traders who were attempting to move the price lower by creating a bunch of noise and FUD, so I pushed back with an article that countered their $3500 end of year calls. In the response I called a higher bottom to $7400. It was a gut reaction to their nonsense at the time. It costed me a friend, but lines were crossed and I must learn from this. The lesson is to keep MY head in MY books, not to adjust my own targets from BS’ers. Hindsight though: If we are actually reversed, $7400 was a really good in point because it is pretty much exactly where the confirmation of the current reversal trend will have happened.

Ultimately, it looks like a bottom may be in, because of the inverse head and shoulders pattern which appeared, and it’s third and final test having completed:

Head and shoulders patterns are particularly good indicators of reversal because it is pretty much the very first chart pattern every analyst ever learned.

Let us observe the Snowsignals model on several time frames and see what they each have to say:

the one hour model is happy, and turned bull at the reversal of the last bottom, pullback has occurred and the slow angle of the state channel is currently increasing to the bull side.

The 4 hour model is happy as well, showing a solid bull channel opening up and almost at the point of unstunting.

Buy signals are starting to appear on the 12 hour chart. This is a very strong sign.

Here is the output of the model for the 12 hour analysis, showing a relatively bullish outlook:

BTCUSD is currently in an increasing bull channel.
The last bear/bull crossover was 2 candles ago.
The vector between now and last crossover is low gain at 9 degrees
It’s magnitude is 3 cycles.
The overall gain, 0.62, has not passed the bull/bear threshold of 28 px.
The slow-to-fast EMA difference in this wedge, 0.46px, suggests this is a stunted wedge formation(<60px)
The low angle in this wedge, 9 degrees, suggests this is a stunted wedge formation.
Probability of stunted wedge: 60 percent
Probability of wedge continuation: 70 percent
Probability of wedge breakdown: 0 percent

Still unconvinced, the day chart will be the final judge of the reversal. Should the signal cause this bearish state channel to close, we are likely to see a relatively good bull session in the coming days weeks or even months.

Bull? Not so fast

Every analyst has to have a disclaimer, and yet while I feel like the bottom has occurred, there are a couple factors at play which could cause a lower low (or retest) to occur:

1. Rejection by the daily chart
2. super moon to 8000 in less than 24 hours

Let us watch the daily chart for confirmation

How about targets?

• The target depends on the speed of the price action. I feel that rapid acceleration to the upper trend line could cause another reactionary drop similar to the after effects of the October 25th spike. Should this occur, the target is $8500 in January. Should this be achieved very rapidly, a significant pullback, or even a retest of the recent lows or a lower low is possible. I’d give this direction about a 40% probability. Second UPDATE 1.9.2020 Bitcoin peaked at 8469.39, and appears to be in the beginnings of a correction phase, after a significant dump during trump’s speech on Iran. This is right on track. Targeting pullback completion early next week — 13th or 14th (because CME Launching options in addition to planetary alignments and other voodoo stuff) This pullback could possibly be *a decent long-term spot entry. According to my median algorithm, Opportunities to buy begin at 7661. * — note I think that ranging will occur over the next couple months so if you miss it, it may happen again. Also lower lows or big failure is always possible so keep that in mind.. THIRD UPDATE: Looks like we are about to test the lows. Because of previous support levels and time frames I am updating my low call accordingly: Friday: 7688, 7500, Sunday dump to 7400, Monday = recovery. FOURTH UPDATE (A few hours later…) Turns out the original call was right. Had a nice bounce to 8120. 8500 or doom is possible. Yeesh, time to sleep…
• Slower acceleration should be the mantra here, we want the strength of bitcoin to ooze, like the blood of those skeptical bears who believed in $3500 at the end of the last decade. In this case, the healthier of the two first targets is around ~$7777 in early February. I’d give this direction about a 50% probability. This target does not represent the actual entirety of the bull session, more so depicts a scenario for which the bear session can be deemed completed. First UPDATE 1.7.2020: Target was met very quickly. This 7700–8500 range could still be played for quite a while. I am leaning towards solution 1 (above) for now. Also, people are going real bull right now, plus ripple started a potential alt-season.
• Should the Daily slow EMA (my model uses a 40 EMA, but you can get similar results on TV with a 60 MA) deny the head and shoulders pattern (we’ll know soon enough) My original call of $5014 is still in play. I’d give this direction a 10% probability.

SnowSignals is a custom built model that is based on Graphic Analysis. It is used for making decisions, and for forecasting future price action. The analysis provided by the tool is based on evaluating the health of an assets’ recent price and volume history. It can be integrated into automatic trading applications, or utilized as a visual tool for making decisions the old fashioned way.

The method is applicable to many (and all) forms of trading, for example, high frequency trading, trading on any interval, predictive analysis or any data that shows trend-like behavior. For Financial Instruments, the model works on any exchange that allows programmatic access to candlestick data. The method can be adapted to ANY and ALL trading spaces.

For more information please contact the author.